It’s Election Day in America, and if you, like me, made the mistake of opening twitter, you’ve probably seen some wild stuff. Preparedness advice, warnings about chaos and violence, alleged plots left and right to steal, coerce, and beclown elections all across this vast and wild nation.
But there’s one post rattling around on ol’ Elon’s jazzy extremist narrative box — which as I start writing has been amped by all the algorithms and blue check fakies to a whopping 90 million views and spawned a panoply of cloned content — that I want to stop and highlight. It’s an excellent example of how deeply embedded Russian narrative now is in the American information environment — in no small part because so many grubby “influencers” and incredulous clowns are willing to engage those narratives as if they are matters of serious concern for most Americans, 1/6 of whom are currently unable to pay their utility bills.
In this case, the grubby, incredulous clown is Tucker Carlson.
It’s been a long decade for Carlson. These days, Carlson is on the outs with the MAGA movement he helped spark because his fawning is no longer for Trump, but Putin. Since his exit from Fox News, Carlson has been unshackled to freely pimp for the Kremlin, including visits to Moscow, interviews with Putin and ideologues like Aleksandr Dugin, and producing sadly rehashed Cold War era propaganda reels with such content as “look at the chandeliers in the Moscow subway, Stalin was such a great manager” and “this fancy Russian grocery store proves the Russian worldview is better than freedom” (I’m paraphrasing). In Cold War times, such content was primarily the purview of anti-war lefties and communist sympathizers, so it’s been quite the lark to see Carlson and his producers bring a right-wing spin to these classics.
But the arc of the horseshoe bends toward insanity — brightly lit by chandeliers, no doubt. These days the intra-horseshoe content creator space is populated by many former MAGA cast members, including former Democrat and DNI Tulsi Gabbard, and former InfoWars cretin Alex Jones, who somehow still exists on the internet. There’s so much horseshoe drivel it’s hard to keep track anymore, but far left and far right share a lot of narrative these days, whatever they want to label themselves.
Enter Carlson’s post on Sunday, which claims that Trump is about to nuke Iran. Screenshots are here so you don’t engage the algorithm:
It’s not the first time since Trump’s war/non-war started that Carlson has said Trump is close to using a nuclear weapon in Iran. This is maybe the fifth or sixth specific instance this year — I can’t be bothered to count.
But it’s Election Day, and because we’ve made it a national business to deny the Russians could ever influence us with weaponized narrative, I think it’s worth looking at this Carlson post and understanding how really easy it is now for the Russians to stick forks in our brains.
The lengthy tweet can basically be boiled down to: “Only America nukes things, and now Bibi (read as ‘the Jews’) is leaning on American to nuke Iran. But Witkoff is a hero. If something bad happens in Ukraine, it’s America’s fault. Nothing is Russia’s fault, ever.”
I know many people are going to read the post and see aspects they agree with. And that’s the point. Because it isn’t always that Russia “invented” these stories and they certainly don’t have exclusive rights on their propagation. But they know how to use narrative hooks to get other propaganda content in front of our eyes, and they know how build pressure within information systems when escalating tension or crisis is of benefit to them.
First, the reference to “no country other than the United States has ever used a nuclear weapon in war” is a gimme line for Russian propaganda. It’s not an untrue statement — though more correctly, they were atomic bombs — but it is used by the Russians, who have a larger nuclear arsenal than any other nation and love a good round of nuclear blackmail, as a constant tool of reminding the world that the real baddie is America. Seeing it used unnecessarily like this is a red flag. But it hooks on to the broader discussions about an unstable and unrestrained American president who has a nuclear button a few yards from his fingers at all times. It’s an easy topic to lean into — and they do.
Second, though Carlson’s post amplifies both the idea that Netanyahu controls Trump and that Trump controls Netanyahu, it’s classic “many armed Jewish octopus behind all things” propaganda. I know this is a very sensitive topic to discuss in America after the October 7th attacks, the Israeli military response to them, and how divisions on these issues roiled parts of our nation and impacted the 2024 elections. So let me be clear here that none of this is a defense of either side nor the dismissal of anyone’s legitimate concerns about security or humanitarian issues or the role the US played in the conflict. But the online American information environment was a mess on this topic during peak moments, frequently tipping into or finding common cause with blanket anti-Semitism even when that was not the intention. As an observer of topics Russian intelligence knows how to manipulate, it was extremely hard to watch.
No, Russia did not invent anti-Semitism, and the world was replete with anti-Jewish narratives long before the Okhrana — the Tsar’s secret police — penned the the Protocols of the Elders of Zion at the dawn of the 20th century. But Russian intelligence knows how to exploit anti-Jewish sentiment and theories of “the many-tentacled Jewish octopus secretly pulling all the strings,” etc. As the Cold War began, the Soviet Union shifted from its initial recognition of Israel to supporting various Palestinian political and extremist causes, and, as this was a key element of Cold War rivalry, the Soviets developed ties to global groups with pro-Palestinian causes, including in the United States.
Remember: what Russian intelligence cares about is not really any one side but being able to control lines of conflict through enemy territory — and we remain a main enemy for Moscow. Soviet/Russian intelligence has long known how to exploit disagreements about Israel/Palestinian issues and drive people to clash along that line of conflict. Within our own valid beliefs, we must always be cautious that our views and beliefs are not being exploited by those who wish harm to our nation. And on this topic, Americans have been incautious as any number of foreign interests, including Russia, have stoked these tensions to deepen divides in our society. This line of narrative was a key part of Russian efforts against America before the 2024 elections. We need to be more aware of how hot topics are used to encourage us to make worse decisions for ourselves and our nation.
Again, weaponized narrative is as much about exploiting legitimate views as creating false and coercive information.
Third, the idea that US actions in Iran should “free Russia” to act as it will in Ukraine. There’s a lot I could say about this, but it’s very complicated to explain how Russia manipulates the US attack on its own essential ally, Iran, to their benefit. This is part nuclear blackmail, part excusing Russia’s genocidal campaigns in Ukraine, part whataboutism, and part just old school nuclear fear-mongering. It’s really easy for Russia to exploit the idea that Trump is a wild man who will do whatever he feels like regardless of institutional constraints and norms because, well, he does. Electing him AGAIN was the greatest narrative gift for our adversaries in so, so many ways. But I’ll leave it at: the US is not responsible for Russian actions. It is, however, responsible for its own coercion and abandonment of Ukraine.
Similarly, Trump is not responsible for Netanyahu or vice versa. Everyone has agency and should be held to account for it.
Fourth, the positioning of actors here. That Trump “to his credit” is ignoring the advice of his [own warmongering cabinet and military] — which apparently includes Barack Obama? — and listening to “dealmakers” like JD Vance and Steve Witkoff. No surprise Russia is plugging Witkoff, fellow mesmerant of Russian chandeliers along with Carlson, and Vance, who believes American power should be dissolved and parceled around to tech bros or something — or that they mention the Iranians are reasonable and want to make a deal (since any deal at this point still puts them well ahead of the starting point, in many respects, and the US with far less weapons to reengage).
All around, Carlson’s post positions Trump as a hollow man easily influenced by those around him — which simultaneously makes him appear quite foolish and also unaccountable for his own actions, the kind of dual narrative Russia is very good at wielding against Trump, but that he absolutely refuses to see as an insult because he still has such deep admiration for Putin.
It’s a soup of detached ideas and hatreds and doubts and fears — but 90 million views and counting.
I think we all anticipate the next days in America may be a bit fraught. Let’s take a minute and remind ourselves that while there are plenty of real divisions and grievances among us, we would still be far more able to solve them if our adversaries were not working so hard to warp perceptions — and if our government had any concept at all for cognitive defense and hadn’t, say, basically disbanded the one government agency trying to bring clarity to information threats around our elections because Trump didn’t like what they had to say.
To wrap up:
Happy Election Day! Get your vote on!
Be tuned in to the information environment, and that actors foreign and domestic will seek to exploit emotions, divisions, hatred, and fear if there are tense outcomes
Think of prior patterns of Russian interference and narrative so your own legitimate views and beliefs are not exploited for adversarial objectives
Remember we are one vast and wild nation and we have to live in here together
We have duties to our history and the world, and the insane introverted navel-gazing that has consumed us doesn’t help us or anyone else
Not everything is Russian and the Russians aren’t mastermind puppetmasters. But right now, there’s a hefty amount of Russian grit grinding around in America’s gears, and it’s time we do some maintenance work. American power will continue to weaken as long as we do not control our information environment and do not invest in the psychological defense of our nation.
— MM
Thanks Molly. Excellent analysis and advice. As I sit here in the polling place, observing for irregularities, this give me calm, and hope. Best to you and your important work.